The Facts · Economy

The real cost of separation

Separation isn't a clean break — it's an economic shock. Here's what the numbers say about leaving Canada.

−$62BEstimated hit to Alberta's economy per year1
−6%Projected drop in GDP after separating1
175kAlberta jobs a separation could cost1
How the damage adds up

Four shocks to Alberta's economy

1

Investor confidence collapses

Markets hate uncertainty. A years-long separation process would freeze major projects, raise borrowing costs, and send capital fleeing to stable jurisdictions.

2

Trade barriers go up

Overnight, Alberta would trade with Canada as a foreign country — new tariffs, customs checks, and red tape on the goods that fuel our economy.

3

A new currency question

Keep the loonie with no say over it, or launch an untested Alberta dollar? Both paths mean volatility for mortgages, savings, and prices.

4

The bill for separating

Standing up new federal-scale institutions — border services, a central bank, tax agencies, embassies — costs billions before a single benefit appears.

By the numbers

Alberta's economy, and the vote

The real figures behind Alberta's trade exposure and where Albertans stand.

Alberta merchandise exports that are energy products276%
Alberta crude oil exports going to a single market, the U.S.393%
Alberta's trade that is with the rest of Canada432%
Albertans who would vote to stay in Canada560%

Alberta is landlocked and energy-heavy: most of what it sells leaves through other provinces or across the U.S. border. Separation would put a new border on that trade.

The choice

Two very different futures

If Alberta separates

  • Tariffs and borders with our biggest customer
  • Capital flight and frozen investment
  • A volatile or untested currency
  • Billions spent rebuilding what we already share
  • Years of legal and economic limbo

If Alberta stays

  • Tariff-free access to 41M+ Canadian customers6
  • Stable currency backed by the Bank of Canada
  • Global trade deals already in force
  • A strong voice at the national table
  • Certainty for families and businesses

Sources

  1. Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary), modelling for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, 2026 — an 8% rise in trade costs implies roughly a 6% smaller economy (~$62B/yr) and ~175,000 fewer jobs. CBC News; see also Tombe, The Hub.
  2. Statistics Canada, Table 12-10-0175-01 — energy products were ~76% of Alberta's merchandise exports (2024). StatCan.
  3. Canada Energy Regulator — ~93% of Canadian crude oil exports went to the United States (2024). CER.
  4. Statistics Canada, Table 12-10-0088-01 — Alberta's interprovincial exports (~$98.5B) were about one-third of its total exports (2022). StatCan.
  5. Angus Reid Institute, May 2026 — 60% of Albertans would vote to remain on the official ballot question (67% on a simplified stay/leave choice). Angus Reid.
  6. Statistics Canada — Canada's population passed 40 million in 2023 and is now ~41.5M. StatCan.

This is a demonstration site. Figures are sourced where shown; the "if Alberta separates / stays" comparisons describe widely-discussed risks rather than single-source facts.

Protect Alberta's economy. Vote to Remain.

Add your name and we'll send you the economic facts that matter before referendum day.

More Facts